Which countries in Europe would benefit most from implementing the Paris Climate Agreement?

This graph shows the projected impact of fully implementing the Paris Climate Agreement on the GDP of different countries in the EU by 2030, compared to a ‘business as usual’ baseline forecast. 

Latvia, Malta and Belgium will experience the largest boost to their GDP. At close to 6%, the projected growth in Latvia’s GDP is by far the most significant – this is largely due to the energy efficiency investment required, and the reduction in fossil fuel imports relative to GDP.

The successful transition towards a low-carbon economy, as defined by the Paris Climate Agreement, is projected to result in a 1.1% growth in GDP, and a 0.5% growth in employment, in the EU as a whole. Globally, China is also projected to benefit from a low-carbon transition, but the United States would experience a 3.4% drop in GDP, and a 1.6% decline in employment.

This analysis is based on a global macro-economic model run by Cambridge Econometrics, and Eurofound’s European Jobs Monitor. It is  is detailed in the new Energy scenario: Employment implications of the Paris Climate Agreement report from the Future of Manufacturing in Europe (FOME) project.